As long as our children's or little sisters' snack is a Bimo* and not a carob pod, Morocco will never be able to feed itself.
To feed itself, Morocco depends largely and increasingly on imports, particularly for "staple products": in 2022, Morocco was producing only about 28% of its cereal consumption, 27% of its oil consumption, and 20% of its sugar consumption, while these three categories combined account for between 77 and 82% of calories consumed in Morocco (1).
This food dependency is amplified and explained by two essential factors. The first is demographic: Morocco's population has tripled since 1961 and continues to grow substantially. The second factor corresponds to changes in eating habits and an orientation toward consuming more processed products, proportionally richer in flour, sugar and oils, generally imported. Food needs have thus increased at a faster rate than demographic growth and national agricultural production.
These profound changes in Moroccan dietary patterns have led to a worrying deterioration in the health of the population. In 2018, 61% of the population of Morocco was overweight and 21% obese, while obesity was almost non-existent in the 1970s.
At the same time, Morocco has based its agricultural production model on exports, particularly of fruits and vegetables. But the strong growth in these exports does not offset the increase in imports.
The following graph compares Morocco's main exports—fruits and vegetables—with imports of the three "staple products": cereals, sugars, and oils.
When excluding seafood products, the overall agricultural and agro-food trade balance is largely in deficit, with $6.9 billion in imports and $5.3 billion in exports in 2021. In 2021, this balance was barely in equilibrium when including seafood products.
In 2022, the surge in international prices for oils and cereals likely widened this deficit further.
Given the agro-export model's inability to generate a positive trade balance and facing the enormous water and climate challenges confronting Moroccan agriculture, increasingly voices are calling for "food sovereignty" or at least a slowdown in exports.
Popularized since 1996 by Via Campesina, an international movement defending the rights of small farmers, food sovereignty is defined as "the right of each country to maintain and develop its own capacity to produce its own food, an essential factor for food security at the national and community level, while respecting cultural and agricultural diversity".
Food sovereignty is now even incorporated into official discourse: Morocco's International Agricultural Exhibition in 2023 had the theme "Green Generation: For Sustainable Food Sovereignty".
But this food sovereignty has very little chance of materializing in Morocco. Replacing water-intensive export crops with other crops is not politically envisioned. And even if it were, and an agricultural production refocused on national market needs were to occur, this would affect both the profitability of Moroccan agriculture and would not allow for meeting the massive, new, and evolving food needs of Morocco's population.
In this article, we will demonstrate that unless accompanied by ambitious food policies, agricultural policies will never allow Morocco to meet its food needs.
I - The Insoluble Equation of "Staple Products"
The continuous decline in coverage of needs by national production
While national agricultural production covered most "staple product" food needs until the 1970s, this coverage, resembling a form of "food sovereignty," has continuously eroded since then.
This erosion is the result of several factors: slow increase in production, rising demand, ease in meeting these needs on international markets…
Cereals, which represent 53% of caloric intake for Morocco's population, are a typical example of this erosion of Moroccan agriculture's capacity to cover its population's needs.
The continuous growth of demand
The increase in demand for "staple products" must be understood as the result of several factors. It is obviously the result of demographic growth, with Morocco's population tripling between 1961 and 2022.
But it is also a consequence of profound changes in eating habits. Thus, per capita cereal availability increased from an average of 270 kg per year in the 1970s to 320 kg/year in the 2010s.
However, this increase must be nuanced since it did not necessarily result in a real increase in per capita cereal consumption, as a large part of this variation should be attributed to the increase in cereals destined for livestock and the increase in food waste in urban areas.
Nevertheless, cereal consumption has changed, with a transition from a majority of durum wheat and barley to a majority of soft wheat consumed as highly refined flour with a much higher glycemic index. The types of cereals and their consumption patterns are therefore less healthy and more conducive to the development of diseases like diabetes.
Other "staple products" have experienced worrying and dangerous increases in per capita consumption for public health.
This is the case with sugar, whose consumption increased from 35 kilos per year per capita to 48 kilos between 2001 and 2022. A Moroccan consumes on average 500 calories of refined sugar per day which is 4 times more than WHO recommendations.
Like cereals, the increase in consumption is covered by imports:
The increase in per capita consumption of these "staple products" in the daily diet of Morocco's population is problematic because it contributes to a hyper-caloric diet: 3400 calories against recommended levels of around 2000 to 2500 calories. In 1971, the average Moroccan consumed 2460 calories (2).
As long as our children's or little sisters' snack is a Bimo* and not a carob pod, Morocco will never be able to feed itself.
To feed itself, Morocco depends largely and increasingly on imports, particularly for "staple products": in 2022, Morocco was producing only about 28% of its cereal consumption, 27% of its oil consumption, and 20% of its sugar consumption, while these three categories combined account for between 77 and 82% of calories consumed in Morocco (1).
This food dependency is amplified and explained by two essential factors. The first is demographic: Morocco's population has tripled since 1961 and continues to grow substantially. The second factor corresponds to changes in eating habits and an orientation toward consuming more processed products, proportionally richer in flour, sugar and oils, generally imported. Food needs have thus increased at a faster rate than demographic growth and national agricultural production.
These profound changes in Moroccan dietary patterns have led to a worrying deterioration in the health of the population. In 2018, 61% of the population of Morocco was overweight and 21% obese, while obesity was almost non-existent in the 1970s.
At the same time, Morocco has based its agricultural production model on exports, particularly of fruits and vegetables. But the strong growth in these exports does not offset the increase in imports.
The following graph compares Morocco's main exports—fruits and vegetables—with imports of the three "staple products": cereals, sugars, and oils.
When excluding seafood products, the overall agricultural and agro-food trade balance is largely in deficit, with $6.9 billion in imports and $5.3 billion in exports in 2021. In 2021, this balance was barely in equilibrium when including seafood products.
In 2022, the surge in international prices for oils and cereals likely widened this deficit further.
Given the agro-export model's inability to generate a positive trade balance and facing the enormous water and climate challenges confronting Moroccan agriculture, increasingly voices are calling for "food sovereignty" or at least a slowdown in exports.
Popularized since 1996 by Via Campesina, an international movement defending the rights of small farmers, food sovereignty is defined as "the right of each country to maintain and develop its own capacity to produce its own food, an essential factor for food security at the national and community level, while respecting cultural and agricultural diversity".
Food sovereignty is now even incorporated into official discourse: Morocco's International Agricultural Exhibition in 2023 had the theme "Green Generation: For Sustainable Food Sovereignty".
But this food sovereignty has very little chance of materializing in Morocco. Replacing water-intensive export crops with other crops is not politically envisioned. And even if it were, and an agricultural production refocused on national market needs were to occur, this would affect both the profitability of Moroccan agriculture and would not allow for meeting the massive, new, and evolving food needs of Morocco's population.
In this article, we will demonstrate that unless accompanied by ambitious food policies, agricultural policies will never allow Morocco to meet its food needs.
I - The Insoluble Equation of "Staple Products"
The continuous decline in coverage of needs by national production
While national agricultural production covered most "staple product" food needs until the 1970s, this coverage, resembling a form of "food sovereignty," has continuously eroded since then.
This erosion is the result of several factors: slow increase in production, rising demand, ease in meeting these needs on international markets…
Cereals, which represent 53% of caloric intake for Morocco's population, are a typical example of this erosion of Moroccan agriculture's capacity to cover its population's needs.
The continuous growth of demand
The increase in demand for "staple products" must be understood as the result of several factors. It is obviously the result of demographic growth, with Morocco's population tripling between 1961 and 2022.
But it is also a consequence of profound changes in eating habits. Thus, per capita cereal availability increased from an average of 270 kg per year in the 1970s to 320 kg/year in the 2010s.
However, this increase must be nuanced since it did not necessarily result in a real increase in per capita cereal consumption, as a large part of this variation should be attributed to the increase in cereals destined for livestock and the increase in food waste in urban areas.
Nevertheless, cereal consumption has changed, with a transition from a majority of durum wheat and barley to a majority of soft wheat consumed as highly refined flour with a much higher glycemic index. The types of cereals and their consumption patterns are therefore less healthy and more conducive to the development of diseases like diabetes.
Other "staple products" have experienced worrying and dangerous increases in per capita consumption for public health.
This is the case with sugar, whose consumption increased from 35 kilos per year per capita to 48 kilos between 2001 and 2022. A Moroccan consumes on average 500 calories of refined sugar per day which is 4 times more than WHO recommendations.
Like cereals, the increase in consumption is covered by imports:
The increase in per capita consumption of these "staple products" in the daily diet of Morocco's population is problematic because it contributes to a hyper-caloric diet: 3400 calories against recommended levels of around 2000 to 2500 calories. In 1971, the average Moroccan consumed 2460 calories (2).