Following the drought of 2021-2022, one of the worst in Morocco's history, the reserve rate of the dams was 25 % at September 1, 2022 (compared with 40% at the same date in 2021 and 49% in 2020). This figure is all the more alarming given that these dams constitute, by far, the country's main reserve of drinking and irrigation water.
For regular updates on the situation of dams in Morocco, consult our article on the evolution of dam filling rates.
Like dams, natural reservoirs (water tables and surface rivers) are also drying up at a rapid rate. Climate change could exacerbate the situation by reducing Morocco's water resources by 30% in the coming decades. next 25 years.
30%! Will Morocco soon be waterless?
Resources that are already largely overexploited and poorly exploited
Urban water consumption is undeniably part of the problem. Bad individual habits and over-consumption in the upscale districts, tourist industry and golf courses are all examples of over- and misuse of water.
However, domestic, urban and industrial uses account for only 15% of Moroccan water consumption. The agricultural sector accounts for 85% of water consumption in Morocco.
And agriculture doesn't just irrigate with annual water stored in dams, or with sustainable use of groundwater like the traditional khettara system.
Irrigated perimeters are also (and increasingly) irrigated using underground resources. Approximately 42% of the country's irrigated land comes from groundwater, through wells authorized by the relevant authorities: the Water Basin Agencies.
Often exploited beyond their recharge capacity, groundwater is doomed to depletion. Morocco, for example, overexploits by 1 billion m3 its water tables every year, a situation that is difficult to make up for in the short term.
In Berrechid, Souss and Zagora, the water tables are already on the verge of drying up. Visit thirst demonstrations in ZagoraThe water quality problems caused by the over-consumption of water for irrigation of watermelon fields were particularly high on the agenda.
Despite the introduction of an ambitious water policy in 1995, with a "demand management" component endowed with a budget of 30 billion dirhams, demand control has primarily consisted of promoting water-saving technologies (drip irrigation) rather than water-intensive water supply. effective control of sampling.
This is drip irrigation, whose effectiveness is called into question in the Moroccan contextThis has been accompanied by the irrigation of more surfaces and/or the more frequent irrigation of each surface. Counter-intuitive result: instead of saving 1 billion m3, we overconsume them. This is what we call the rebound effect.
Optimization techniques such as drip irrigation are only effective if they are accompanied by demand regulation policies.
In the Saïss plain, for example, the number of wells and boreholes has increased more than 13-fold in 35 years, from 900 to 12,000 wells between 1980 and 2015with overexploitation reaching 100 million m3.
Illustration of the effects of agricultural intensification on the Moroccan landscape. Inspired by the results of the agrarian diagnosis of the Saïss plain.
A very dry 2040 horizon
To assess whether or not a country is water-stressed, divide the water resources received in a given year by its population.
Morocco already has a fairly limited water resource per capita, as the following comparison shows:
Quantity of water available per capita per year in Morocco and its evolution since 1960. Source : World Bank.
The reduction in water resources, estimated at 30% in the next 25 years would make Morocco the second largest country in Africa after Libya.
In fact, climate change will lead to an average decrease of 20% volumes of rainfall received by Morocco, while at the same time reducing snow-covered areas and considerably increasing the risk of drought.
The exceptional drought of 2021-2022 would be a realistic norm in 2040.
The situation is all the more tense given that we're talking about averages here, and that some regions are much worse off than others. Thus, 70% of Morocco's water resources are received by 15% of the national territory (North-West).
What can we do to avoid the worst?
To avoid the worst, two options are inseparable: increase (or rather try to maintain) the supply of available water and optimize (and therefore reduce) demand.
Increasing supply
There are several ways of increasing the amount of water stored in Morocco: building more dams, desalination, recycling wastewater, etc.
But there's no magic bullet, and each of these solutions has (major) limitations.
When a dam is built, it has to be filled. As Morocco's potential in this area has been largely exploited, it is highly likely that the next dams to be built will fill up very little.
When building a desalination plant, you need to have the budget to build it and the electricity to run it. Desalination is in fact a technology expensive and electricity-hungry. It is therefore mainly used for drinking water and a few rare agricultural applications.
When recycling wastewater, it's important to bear in mind that it represents only 15% of the water consumed, the remaining 85% being used by agriculture and therefore not recyclable.
Increasing available supply will enable Morocco to achieve water security if, and only if, consumption is kept under control. This means optimizing consumption, especially in agriculture.
Optimizing demand
Optimizing urban demand
Optimizing consumption in the city is a lever that should not be overlooked: raising awareness of wasteful consumption, increasing rates for specific sectors (tourism in particular), recycling wastewater... are all possible levers. Today, Rabat irrigates almost all of its green spaces with recycled wastewater, saving over 10% in water consumption.
Optimizing agricultural demand
The promotion of agroecological practices compatible with Morocco's soil and climate conditions is essential. Through agroforestry, under-cover cultivation, shallow ploughing or direct seeding, etc... Optimized water consumption for two reasons: evaporation (and therefore soil drying) is reduced, and soil structure and therefore its ability to retain water is improved.
Such techniques are not innovations; they are historically established in Morocco, and it is now a question of observing them, testing them in other regions and adapting them to a more mechanized agriculture and to the demands of agricultural markets.
Haouz - Arbâa Tighedouine: Agroforestry system combining iris, carob and olive trees.
For each cultivated species, making the most of its genetic diversity is a major lever for adapting to climate change. In fact, there are certain "traditional" or "improved" varieties more tolerant to drought. This is particularly true of olive trees, whose genetic diversity is considerable in Morocco. The identification, improvement and promotion of drought-resistant varieties is therefore possible and would strengthen the resilience of the olive sector.
It would be a major paradigm shift to focus genetic selection on productivity per liter of water rather than per hectare. In view of the current situation in Morocco, this change seems necessary.
A number of less water-hungry species that have fallen into oblivion would also be very useful in this water transition. This is the case of sorghum, which uses less water than maize, and which in 1950 covered over 150,000 hectares. Other species, currently uncommon in Morocco, could also be of interest: millet, quinoa, cowpeas... But this also requires the Moroccan consumer to take an interest.
Finally, regulating the surface area of water-hungry crops could result in significant savings. While the discontinuation of subsidies for avocado and citrus orchard planting has been announcedIn fact, orchards that have already been planted will continue to over-consume water. Regulation, through grubbing-up premiums for example, is the preferred solution. on European vineyards for other reasons, could reduce the surface area of these water-hungry crops in the most sensitive areas.
Irrigation optimization techniques and technologies could also be part of the solution: underground drip irrigation, drones, making the most of traditional irrigation know-how... but they're not enough. beware of techno-solutionism.
The application of all these solutions will, however, depend on the priority of public policies in the coming years: to beat tomato export records for 10 years, or to have water to drink in 10 years?
Article by Kenza Himmich and Ali Hatimy