Hydrogène au Maroc : Opportunité de développement et défi environnemental

While hydrogen has been widely used in many industrial sectors since the mid-20th century, it is now enjoying renewed interest as a means of decarbonizing the economy. Demand for this "green gold" is set to increase 5-fold between now and 2050, fuelled by environmental concerns and the climate crisis.

Morocco is positioning itself as an ideal candidate to become a leader in green hydrogen production, taking advantage of both its vast solar and wind energy resources and its strategic geography, at the crossroads of Africa and Europe. Indeed, the Moroccan government has recently put in place an ambitious framework with the Morocco Offer published in March 2024, which aims to support the development of the hydrogen sector in the country.

This article explores the technological and environmental aspects of hydrogen production and use, before analyzing Morocco's strengths in this sector and the long-term economic prospects it offers the country. While the opportunities for Morocco to assert itself on the global hydrogen scene are numerous and promising, the substantial volumes that will be required for the climate transition represent major technical and environmental challenges. These need to be considered in an objective and informed way, so that we can collectively make the best choices to support the fight against climate change.

Indeed, green hydrogen is set to play an important role in Morocco over the next few years, thanks to its many advantages (significant renewable electricity potential, low population density in certain areas and geographical proximity to Europe). The Morocco Offer, which plans to set aside almost 1 million hectares for this sector, bears witness to the high level of ambition the country has set itself for the development of this new industry. By focusing on projects with significant positive externalities for the Moroccan economy, the country intends to develop several industrial sectors to meet the demand for hydrogen along its value chain, thereby capturing most of the added value created, ensuring far-reaching socio-economic spin-offs. However, the attractiveness of hydrogen is hampered by significant environmental realities. The large amount of water consumed by water electrolysis is a considerable challenge, especially for a country facing major drought episodes. Finally, hydrogen production requires the generation of large quantities of renewable electricity, which could conflict with the decarbonization objectives of Morocco's electricity mix, which is still heavily dependent on coal.

Hydrogen fundamentals

Existing production processes

There are 4 processes for producing hydrogen: natural gas reforming (the most common), coal and biomass gasification, and water electrolysis. The latter process separates hydrogen and oxygen from water using electricity, and currently accounts for less than 1% of global hydrogen production. Yet it is the only potential source of hydrogen. green (if the electricity used is carbon-free))and thus offers hope for the decarbonization of many sectors [1].

Current hydrogen market and future uses

Total hydrogen production will be close to 100 million tonnes in 2020, and could increase 5-fold in carbon-neutral scenarios. In its Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects a growing role for low-carbon hydrogen in sectors where emissions are difficult to reduce, and where other mitigation measures may not be available or would be difficult to implement. These include heavy industry (manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers after conversion into ammonia, cement manufacture, coal replacement in the steel industry), passenger transport, shipping (in the form of methanol or ammonia for container ships), and aviation (in the form of sustainable aviation fuels).

Numerous reference organizations agree that low-carbon (blue or green) hydrogen will play a growing role in our future low-carbon economies. We note, however, that in all cases, reductions in CO2 hydrogen are still relatively low compared to other climate change mitigation measures such as sobriety or the massive deployment of renewable energies.

The key: low-carbon, competitive electricity

One of the main cost factors for green hydrogen is the renewable electricity needed to power the electrolyzers. The production costs of green hydrogen are currently 4 to 10 times higher than those of grey hydrogen (4-12 USD/kg versus 1-2 USD/kg), even in the most favorable production sites. Expected reductions in the production costs of renewable energies and electrolyzers will increase the long-term competitiveness of green hydrogen. Thanks to its high levels of sunshine and wind exposure, Morocco has significant renewable energy potential, giving it a central role in the future of global hydrogen.

Morocco's special place

Available space, renewable energy potential and proximity to Europe

Morocco has everything it takes to become a champion of green hydrogen, thanks to its abundant renewable resources, available land and stable legal framework. Morocco's almost unique feature is its abundance of sites combining exceptional resources for both solar[2] and wind power. and wind energy[3]In addition, Morocco is a major consumer of hydrogen and its by-products. Moreover, Morocco is a major consumer of hydrogen and its by-products (the Office Chérifien des Phosphates consumes large volumes of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers derived from hydrogen), and could therefore address its domestic consumption with green hydrogen produced on its territory. Finally, its proximity to Europe, which has set very ambitious targets for the development of the hydrogen and associated industries (for example, see the recent legal obligations to incorporate sustainable aviation fuelsThis is of major strategic interest to the Kingdom, which can transform itself from an importer of fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) to an exporter of green molecules. This prospect is all the more relevant given that a quarter of the world's hydrogen demand could be traded internationally by 2050.

"L'Offre Maroc": an ambitious strategy

L'Offre Maroc has announced the release of 1 million hectares of land for the development of green hydrogen projects, including solar power plants, wind farms, electrolyzer batteries, processing plants (ammonia, methanol, etc.) and associated infrastructure. This considerable figure represents over 1% of the country's surface area of 71 million hectares. The Morocco Offer had been awaited since it was announced in November 2022, and was intended to clarify several elements that are essential to the successful development of green hydrogen projects: land allocation, responsibility for developing the necessary infrastructure, government incentives, government requirements in terms of financial and social benefits (visit Offer Morocco for more details).

On this last point, it is important to note that the development of a Moroccan low-carbon hydrogen market could represent significant development opportunities, with positive externalities on the economy and employment, at different stages of the production chain. The positive externalities on the economy, training and employment, and more broadly on Morocco's development, depend directly on the proportion of these activities that would ultimately be located on Moroccan territory.

Examples of projects under development in Morocco

Like the rest of the international sector, Morocco has seen little concrete progress to date, apart from the strategic initiative of OCP, which has begun construction of a 1.4k tonnes/year green ammonia pilot project at its Jorf Lasfar plant, and is in the advanced stages of its Tarfaya giga-project: 1 GW of photovoltaic solar power and 2.3 GW of wind power, as well as a 60 Mm3 desalination plant feeding a 1.85 GW electrolyser and an ammonia production plant with a production target of 1 million tonnes per year by 2027 and 3 million tonnes per year by 2032. Other large-scale projects have been announced by a number of players, notably from Europe. For example, TotalEnergies is reportedly planning to invest $10.69 billion (100 billion dirhams) in a green hydrogen and ammonia production project in Timelzoune (Guelmim-Oued Noun). The hybrid project is expected to generate more than 10 GW from a combination of solar and wind power, covering a total area of approximately 180,000 ha[4]. It is interesting to note that the mega-projects announced in Morocco are much larger than the biggest European projects. These projects would have limited social acceptability in Europe, notably due to their high environmental impact; negative externalities that would eventually be relocated by Northern countries to producer countries such as Morocco.

Environmental issues and challenges facing hydrogen production

High water demand based on desalination

The production of green hydrogen requires the use of large quantities of water for electrolysis. The production of 1kg of green hydrogen requires the consumption of almost 30 liters of desalinated water (including cooling requirements), or approximately 75 liters of seawater. Thus, OCP's objective of producing 3 million tonnes of ammonia requires the use of 540,000 tonnes of hydrogen, which corresponds to almost 270 million cubic metres, or more than twice the quantity of water consumed by a major urban area such as Casablanca (assumption: 80 L/d on average for a population of 4.6 million inhabitants). Thus, if Morocco managed to dedicate 1 million hectares entirely to ammonia production, this would represent more than 5% of the country's annual water consumption[5].. This is considerable and would have a significant effect on the availability of water in the country.In view of the Kingdom's recurrent drought, and as mentioned above, all green hydrogen production projects will require the use of seawater desalination plants. Although these desalination units have a relatively marginal impact on the cost of the hydrogen produced (of the order of 0.02-0.05 USD per kg) and on the energy consumption of the projects, they can have significant environmental consequences (see Desalination: a solution to water scarcity? - Nechfate).

Electricity consumption well in excess of current national production

In addition to high water consumption, the production of green hydrogen requires the installation of large-scale renewable energy production capacities. Current water electrolysis technologies consume 55 kWh of electricity per kg of hydrogen produced. Thus, the 6 million tonnes of green hydrogen produced annually will require almost 330 TWh of renewable electricity, almost 10 times the country's annual consumption. This significant figure could be even higher if the electricity required for seawater desalination is taken into account. These figures show the scale of the challenges facing the country before it can play a major role in the global green hydrogen market. Questions remain, however, as to the relevance of developing so many renewable energy projects for hydrogen production, given that Morocco's electricity mix remains highly carbon-intensive. These projects could potentially thwart or delay the achievement of the country's renewable energy targets, and possibly penalize Moroccan manufacturers subject to the carbon border adjustment mechanism for their carbon-intensive exports to the European Union (see Impact of carbon tax at European borders on Moroccan exports - Nechfate).

An impact on the territory, biodiversity and local populations

Morocco's offer of 1 million hectares of land for the development of green hydrogen projects represents over 1% of the country's surface area of 71 million hectares. While it is likely that the majority of these territories will be selected from sparsely populated geographical areas, projects of this scale cannot be devoid of impact on local populations and biodiversity. At this stage, if there are many uncertainties about these possible impacts, particular attention will need to be paid to consultation with all the stakeholders concerned (e.g. local pastoralists where applicable).

Article written by Khalil Ababou & Mehdi Mikou

Notes :

[1] The impact of hydrogen production in terms of greenhouse gas emissions is linked to the processes used and the energy sources employed. In order to classify these different production methods according to their carbon emissions, colors have been assigned to them. Brown/black hydrogen produced from coal gasification emits the most CO2. This is followed by grey hydrogen produced from methane reforming. These carbon-based processes can produce blue hydrogen if combined with carbon capture units.

[2] The load factor or utilization factor of a power plant is the ratio between the electrical energy actually produced over a given period and the energy it would have produced if it had operated at its rated power during the same period. Morocco has a lot of sunshine: solar power has a load factor > 30%.

[3] In Morocco, winds can be powerful and regular, and wind power has a load factor > 50%.

[4] See Hespress article of May 26, 2023.

[5] Taking as an example a recent tender in Oman to produce nearly 1 million tonnes of ammonia a year (i.e. 180,000 tonnes of H2) on a 30,000-hectare site. See information on the reference project at this link.

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