Climate change, caused by emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from human activity, already constitutes a threat on a global scale since many extreme climate events (extreme temperatures, heavy precipitation or droughts for example) are today attributable to climate change (for more information see Attribution of extreme events). Although all activities contribute to the country's GHG emissions, energy-related uses remain by far the largest source of emissions despite the recent growth of renewable energy.
National Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Since the early 1990s, GHG emissions have tripled (fig 1.a) to reach more than 90 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (Mt CO2eq) in 2019. The main GHG emission sectors are:
- Energy Sector: Its share of national GHG emissions has remained predominant at over 60% to reach 73% of 2019 emissions. That year, its emissions were primarily distributed (fig 1.b) between electricity and heat production (43%), transport of people and goods (29%), energy used in buildings (12%) and energy used to power industry and construction (11%).
- Agriculture Sector: Rising from 12 to 15 Mt CO2eq (representing 16% of 2019 emissions) over this period, the sector experienced modest growth in emissions, contrasting with the productivity gains achieved by the sector during this time.
- Industrial Processes Sector: Emissions from this sector tripled and followed the same trend as the increase in its added value in the country, reaching 6.3 Mt CO2eq in 2019.
- Waste Sector: With nearly 5 Mt CO2eq in 2019, the sector contributed 5% of total emissions.
- Land Use Change and Forestry Sector: Although carbon sinks (negative emissions from this sector) experienced a sharp decline in the early 2010s (falling from 4.4 to 1.4 Mt CO2eq stored), the country intends to "develop sustainable and resilient agriculture and forest ecosystems and carbon sinks" as stated in the low-carbon Long-Term Strategy Morocco 2050 (LTS - 2050).
Recent growth in emissions (11.3%) over the 2012-2018 period (fig 2) came primarily from the following sectors: the transport sector contributed more than a third of this growth, the electricity/heat production and agricultural sectors each contributed approximately 20% of this increase and to a lesser extent the agriculture sector accounted for 13% of this increase. Conversely, emissions related to energy use by the industry/construction sector declined and helped reduce the overall emissions increase by 0.9%.
In addition to being the primary GHG-emitting sector, the energy sector has accounted for more than 80% of recent emissions growth. We will therefore look at the sources of energy consumption and Morocco's electricity production system.
Zoom on the Energy Sector
Since 1990, the amount of final energy consumed in Morocco has more than tripled, rising from 236,000 TJ (terajoules) to over 700,000 TJ in 2019 (fig 3.a). During this period, the share of petroleum products in total energy consumed stabilized around 70%. Thanks to their potential to provide low-carbon energy, certain electricity sources (hydroelectric, solar, wind and nuclear) can help reduce the energy sector's footprint. However, Morocco's electricity mix (fig 3.b) remains largely dominated in 2020 by fossil fuels (coal representing nearly 70% of current supply) despite the recent penetration of renewable energy (wind and solar reached 15% of electricity in 2020 compared to 0% in 1990). Thanks to its solar potential among the highest in the world, the country has the capacity to achieve the objective of 52% "renewable energy in total installed electrical capacity by 2030" (LTS - 2050). This will also allow it to reduce its dependence on fossil fuel imports.
By signing the Paris Agreement, States committed to "strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature increase well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase further to 1.5 degrees Celsius" (UNFCC). However, countries have not contributed equally to the problem, as recalled by the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities". One can then wonder how Morocco is positioned on this issue.
Article by Mehdi Mikou