What Historical Responsibility?

With a total of nearly 50 Gt CO2eq released into the atmosphere in 2019 worldwide, Morocco's emissions represent only 0.18% of total global emissions (WRI-CAIT). Beyond current responsibility, it is important to note that climate change is a cumulative problem whose effects depend on all past emissions. According to data from the Global Carbon Project, which sought to reconstruct CO2 emissions for each country since 1750, Morocco's contribution to total emissions since 1750 is 0.1% (fig 1).

What About Per Capita Emissions

Per capita emissions in Morocco in 2019 amounted to 2.5 tonnes CO2eq (tCO2eq) per individual. For comparison, per capita emissions in 2019 were 8.9 tCO2eq in Argentina, 17.6 in the United States, 8.6 in China, and 1.64 in Ethiopia (WRI-CAIT, fig 2). In reality, these per capita emissions of 2.5 tCO2eq are an average and hide significant emission inequalities between different income levels. According to the World Inequality Database, the richest 10% of Moroccans concentrate nearly 64% of the country's wealth, and the top 10% of emitters have an average carbon footprint more than 4 times higher than national average emissions. Since income is highly correlated with greenhouse gas emissions, the richest 10% are predominantly among the top 10% emitters. It is therefore important to consider social justice questions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction plans to avoid placing the burden on middle and low-income classes.

 

International Commitments

Following the signing of the Paris Agreement, the country committed through the publication of its "Nationally Determined Contribution" (NDC) to reduce its emissions by 45.5% by 2030. Climate Action Tracker, an independent scientific body that analyzes countries' emission reduction commitments, gives the country a rating of "almost sufficient" (ranking it among the most ambitious countries on climate matters). This means that "climate policies and commitments are not yet in line with the 1.5°C temperature limit set by the Paris Agreement, but could be with moderate improvements" (CAT-Morocco). It is important to emphasize that these commitments are purely voluntary and not legally binding, and their achievement is far from assured.

 

A Final Word

Finally, despite low current and historical responsibility, it is worth recalling that emissions have tripled in the past 30 years and that continuing this trend would not be sustainable. The challenge for the coming years is to avoid reproducing the development model initiated by "Northern" countries (based on abundant fossil energy) and thus to imagine a new carbon-neutral development model. Morocco would benefit from committing to this path knowing that measures to reduce GHG emissions (mitigation options) and adaptation can contribute to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (see figure 8 SPM WG3 AR6).

 

Article by Mehdi Mikou